Scenario Registry

Base, Bear, and Bull stay in the scenario layer, not in copied dashboard formulas

This page is now read-only by design. Scenario variation is governed by the Chapter 6 registry, while the dashboard and notebook remain downstream communication layers over the same assembled Chapter 7 bundle.

Official scenarios 3
Exogenous drivers 2
Excluded from contract Liquidity stress
WATCH
Scenario label Base/Bear/Bull Bundle
Run reference R_20260420_190558_001
Model version M_0.3.0

Scenario Cards

Reader-facing compare view

Each case is driven only by the official Chapter 6 macro path and translation layer.

Base

FY2029-Q3

PASS
$963.9m
Revenue $2,984.6m
EBIT $455.4m
Ending cash $1,777.3m
Ending net debt $616.3m

Bear

FY2029-Q3

WARN
$777.0m
Revenue $2,984.6m
EBIT $394.8m
Ending cash $1,119.9m
Ending net debt $1,273.7m

Bull

FY2029-Q3

PASS
$1,057.0m
Revenue $2,984.6m
EBIT $485.7m
Ending cash $2,090.5m
Ending net debt $303.1m

Driver Path · Oil → COGS YoY → Gross Margin

WTI crude scenario paths USD/bbl

Three scenario paths for WTI crude. Oil shocks flow into the model through the fitted oil → COGS YoY channel (input-cost story; β > 0, R²≈0.50, p<0.001), then translate to a gross margin slope via Δgm = −(1 − gmbase) · β · oil_shock.

Current: $87.38 (FY2026-Q4)
Base Bear Bull

Driver Path · CPI → DIO (2Q lag)

3-month annualized CPI paths %

Three scenario paths for 3M annualized CPI. A 2-quarter lag is applied before CPI hits days inventory outstanding.

Current: 0.05% (FY2026-Q4)
Base Bear Bull

Scenario Definitions

Official registry inputs

Scenario Cash floor Oil shock CPI shock (pp) CapEx mult. Dividend mult. Buyback mult.
Base
Consensus oil path and consensus CPI path.
 $700m 0.0% 0.0 pp 1.00x 1.00x 1.00x
Bear
Higher oil and softer demand with partial buyback restraint.
 $700m 10.0% 1.0 pp 1.00x 1.00x 1.00x
Bull
Lower oil and firmer demand with modestly stronger capital returns.
 $700m -5.0% -0.5 pp 1.00x 1.00x 1.00x

Translation Layer

Live-fit sensitivity coefficients

Fit from RL history: 2026-04-19T06:00:00+00:00. Oil is an input-cost channel. The applied fit regresses oil YoY against COGS YoY (clean dollar pass-through; no revenue-denominator contamination). The two diagnostic rows show the margin-ratio and dollar-gross-profit fits for empirical comparison. The COGS-YoY slope is translated at runtime to a period-specific gross_margin slope via Δgm = −(1 − gmbase) · β · oil_shock.

Channel β (fitted) R² n Interpretation Fallback?
Oil (WTI yoy) → COGS YoY Applied 0.658 0.523 36 +0.658% COGS YoY per +1% oil False
Oil (WTI yoy) → Gross Margin Diagnostic -0.025 0.094 40 -0.025% margin per +1% oil True
Oil (WTI yoy) → Gross Profit YoY Diagnostic Winner R² 0.659 0.604 36 0.659% GP YoY per +1% oil False
CPI (3M ann) → DIO (2Q lag) 977.57 0.809 38 +9.78 days DIO per +1 pp CPI False